Spatial planning for fire prevention and post-fire interventions in the Upper Paraguay River Basin

Abstract

In this thesis, we used spatial planning, geographic information systems, species data, and ecological niche modeling as tools to contribute to public policies aimed at increasing the efficiency of resource use for wildfire prevention and post-fire restoration in the Upper Paraguay River Basin. In Chapter 01, focused on native remnants near watercourses, we used meteorological and fire historic data to define priority areas for fire prevention and post-fire restoration in the Pantanal wetland, and to compare restoration costs in these priority areas by using different restoration techniques. In Chapter 02, the study area was expanded to include the entire Upper Paraguay River Basin, since the Pantanal (lowland/floodplain)’s headwaters are located in the Cerrado, Amazon, and Atlantic Forest surrounding biomes (highlands/plateau) and this basin must be considered as a territorial management unit. In addition, we included biodiversity component: ecological niche models for 14 fire-sensitive and threatened plant species. In Chapter 03, we developed ecological niche models for all fire-sensitive species of the Pantanal and projected into the future under different greenhouse gases concentrations emission scenarios based on data by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic). This chapter identifies where fire-sensitive plant species are currently found, the areas where they are expected to lose suitable habitat, and the regions that require greater conservation attention. The data supports the creation of protected areas and the designation of priority zones for wildfire prevention, combat, and restoration. The Appendix serves as a practical guide for protected areas managers or landowners on how to use the thesis results and prioritizations.