Modelos de Previsão de Insolvência: Teste Comparativo do Modelo Aranha & Gondrige.

Abstract

Corporate insolvency is a phenomenon of great economic and social relevance, because, contrary to popular belief, it affects not only the organization involved, but also investors, employees, creditors, and the financial system as a whole. Although the term insolvency is well known, there is still a need for both improvement and knowledge of the models that predict insolvency. Therefore, the objective of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis between insolvency prediction models (Altman Z1 and Z2, Aranha & Gondrige, and Kanitz) as well as to test the reliability of the Aranha & Gondrige Insolvency Prediction Model (2021). The research aims to reaffirm and observe whether the model in question remains among the most efficient. For the development of this work, economic and financial information from 20 publicly traded companies registered with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) in 2022 as companies undergoing judicial reorganization were analyzed. Regarding its nature, the research is classified as applied, descriptive in its objectives, quantitative in its approach, and bibliographic and documentary in its procedures, as it uses the analysis of primary data obtained from the collection of company financial reports and statements. The results indicate that the Aranha & Gondrige Insolvency Prediction Model is aligned with the results of other insolvency predictors used. Keywords: Financial Information, Bankruptcy Prediction, Financial Indicators.