DETERMINANTES DA FORMAÇÃO BRUTA DE CAPITAL FIXO A PARTIR DE ANÁLISES ECONOMÉTRICAS

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the determinants of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in Brazil, combining Hyman Minsky's economic theory with econometric analyses. Thus, it highlights the crucial influence of economic stability on GFCF, demonstrating that responsible fiscal policies, such as austerity in the first Lula administration, create conditions suitable for sustainable Investments, while uncontrolled expansionary policies, such as in the Dilma administration, can lead to a temporary increase in GFCF followed by recessions. The research uses econometric models to investigate the relationship between GFCF and variables such as SELIC interest rates, public debt and GDP. The results of the Granger causality test do not indicate a significant causal relationship between GFCF and most of the variables tested, indicating that macroeconomic stability is a more determining factor for GFCF than isolated variations in these variables. The VEC model, which includes GFCF, GDP and Savings Deposits, reinforces this conclusion by predicting stability for GFCF, in contrast to the volatility of GDP and Savings. The predicted stability for GFCF may be related to the long-term nature of fixed asset investments, which are less susceptible to short-term fluctuations, as well as favorable credit conditions and political incentives. The study concludes that macroeconomic stability is essential to stimulate GFCF and sustainable economic growth in Brazil. Policies that promote predictability, such as inflation control, respect for institutions and legal certainty, are essential to create an environment conducive to investment.