A estocasticidade determina a sazonalidade de uma assembleia de anuros no Cerrado brasileiro

Abstract

Anurans are highly sensitive to environmental changes, particularly in Neotropical regions, such as the Cerrado. Therefore, we seek to understand how temperature, humidity, precipitation, photoperiod, and the evolutionary history of species, shape the patterns of anuran communities over time. We used Phylogenetic Generalized Linear Mixed Models to analyze the relationships between climatic variables and anuran abundance, incorporating species' evolutionary history as a covariate. Our results showed that precipitation has a positive influence on anuran abundance, while temperature alone had no significant effect. However, we observed that the interaction between precipitation and temperature was not statistically significant and negative. These results suggest that only precipitation favors abundance, while temperature appears to act by reducing abundance. Additionally, species phylogeny and variability in sampling campaigns also contributed to explaining variations in abundance, as closely related species tend to exhibit similar ecological responses to environmental changes. We emphasize that precipitation is essential for anuran survival and reproductive behavior, especially in seasonally dry environments like the Cerrado. As, an important predictor of species distribution, climate also shows that evolutionary proximity among species reflects niche conservatism. These findings reinforce the importance of furthern research on climatic and evolutionary impacts to guide conservation strategies in biodiversity-rich Neotropical ecosystems.