Integrando os modelos de distribuição das espécies: Sterculia apetala (Jacq.) Karst, Aalea phalerata Mart. ex Spreng e Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus Latham, para o Bioma Pantanal, implicações para conservação e restauração

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDM) have been used to assist decision making in different aspects of conservation and restoration. However, for effective application of SDMs in conservation, these models need to discriminate between suitable and unsuitable environments, and to be developed at fine scales. Limiting factors, to these models, also need to be understood better, such as the effects of species occurrence records and the relationship between the scale at which the predictor variable interacts with the species distribution and the scale of the study. We sought to understand the effects of two methods that reduce bias (geographic vs. environmental filter) and three predictor variable types in local models (climactic, local, and biotic). We explore these six model types for the hyacinth macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus), a globally vulnerable species in the Pantanal wetland region of southwestern Brazil. We consider broad-scale niche relations, local-scale habitat associations, and interactions with two plant species, which the bird depends on as a food and nidification source. We found that using climate variables for local-scale models can generate models that underrepresent suitable areas, whereas using local and biotic variables generated more accurate models with predictions consistent with the known distribution of the bird species. Although not commonly used, such variables strongly affect the of model development by increasing accuracy, reducing omission error, and leading to more conservative predictions. The best results obtained by these models showed the importance of these variables in the distribution of species at the local scale.