INFLUÊNCIA DA TAXA DE CÂMBIO E DA PRESENÇA DE CORRUPÇÃO NO GOVERNO NA PRÁTICA DE DESCAMINHO DO PARAGUAI E BOLÍVIA PARA O BRASIL: UMA ABORDAGEM TRIBUTÁRIA DO CRIME.

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate how exchange rates and government corruption influence the crime of smuggling at the borders of Brazil with Paraguay and Bolivia. Using a quantitative approach, the research employs experiments to explore the impact of these factors on individual decisions to engage in smuggling, defined as the introduction of goods into Brazil without paying customs duties. The central hypothesis is that the combination of a favorable exchange rate and the presence of government corruption increases the propensity for smuggling. To test this hypothesis, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was conducted. The results indicate that, although the exchange rate alone does not have a significant effect, the presence of corruption combined with a favorable exchange rate leads to a significant increase in the incidence of the crime. Additionally, the study examines participants' perceptions of impunity and the weakness of institutions responsible for customs enforcement, highlighting how these elements contribute to the perpetuation of smuggling at the borders. The study also explores the economic conditions associated with fluctuations in the dollar (both high and low) and the presence of government corruption, which favor the practice, such as the re-exportation of goods from Paraguay to Brazil and the impact of tax enforcement operations. The results reject the isolated influence of the dollar's fluctuations on smuggling but confirm their influence when analyzed in conjunction with corruption.