Variação espaço-temporal na ocorrência de Aedes spp. (Diptera: Culicidae) no estado do Mato Grosso do Sul​

Abstract

Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) are vectors of various pathogens including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. The increase in infections transmitted by these vectors in recent decades has becomes a global concern. In the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), the epidemiological scenario is challenging due to the rising dengue rates concurrent with the circulation of chikungunya and Zika viruses, whose primary vector is A. aegypti. The objective of the study was to investigate spatiotemporal patterns and factors influencing the dynamics of this vector to strengthen mosquito control measures and epidemic response. This study evaluated the incidence of Aedes spp. in 79 cities of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2011 to 2021. A multilevel model was applied to identify how variables may influence intra-seasonal distribution patterns of the vector, such as temperature, precipitation and the Human Development Index (HDI) as a socioeconomic factor. Based on larval infestation index data, we observed the presence of immature forms of A. aegypti in all 79 analyzed cities, with Aedes albopictus also detected in 30 cities, in addition to A. aegypti. Continuing the statistical analyzes with multilevel models, we used data from 27 cities that correspond to the 27 meteorological stations present in the state. Only the House Index (IH) of A. aegypti was considered for these analyses. Accumulated precipitation was the most significant abiotic factor for identifying locations with mosquito breeding sites, demonstrating that rainy periods are associated with higher Aedes infestation rates in the state. The multilevel model allowed us to conclude that the seasonal profile of A. aegypti breeding sites in Mato Grosso do Sul includes a high presence of immature forms in the first and last quarters of the year, coinciding with periods of high temperature and precipitation. However, presence persists throughout the year in an aggregated manner, with a decline during cold and dry months. The HDI confirmed that areas with better sanitation and infrastructure are less susceptible to high infestation rates, as demonstrated by the model indicating that areas with high HDI have low incidence and high seasonality of breeding sites. Therefore, with seasonal profile model of the state, we hope to contribute to directing health strategies in combating the proliferation of A. aegypti as also to further studies on vector occurrence in Mato Grosso do Sul, still scarce. Palavras-chave: Aedes aegypti, multilevel model, spatio-temporal patterns, vectors, Mato Grosso do Sul