A RELAÇÃO ENTRE A DENGUE E OS ELEMENTOS CLIMÁTICOS NO MUNICÍPIO DE PEREIRA BARRETO - SP

Abstract

With the dengue crisis recorded in the municipality of Pereira Barreto - SP during the months of November and December 2018 and January and February 2019, the largest crisis of the disease since the year 2015, the objective of this research was to analyze the relation betweenelements of climate and the number of dengue cases in the municipality, being studied the period between 2015 and 2021. To achieve the objective of the study, data of dengue cases were used with data of accumulated monthly precipitation and air temperatures, with the confirmed dengue notifications being taken from the Information System of Notifiable Diseases - SINAN and provided by the Epidemiological Surveillance of Pereira Barreto, with data of rainfall and temperatures acquired from the Santa Adélia agrometeorological station, of the Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho" - Campus Ilha Solteira. To analyze the impacts of climate elements on the number of dengue cases, correlation and determination calculations were used to observe the direct relationship of the different elements and the increase or decrease of cases, with monthly data analysis for each year of the studied period. In conclusion, it was observed that dengue cases showed a relationship with the rainfall regime, with a concentration of notifications in months of greater precipitation. The study also showed that the characteristic of standard-year in 2015 differed from the years 2019 and 2021, and that among the climatic elements, the minimum temperatures showed the greatest stability in the correlation with dengue cases in the hydrological years in which there were the highest records, demonstrating the need for adequate minimum temperatures for the maintenance of the vector cycle. In the same period, the influence of rainfall showed a non-constant influence in the period without lag, being more significant in the years 2015/2016 and 2020/2021 from lags of one and two months. The maximum temperature obtained results that indicated greater influence in the years 2015/2016 and 2018/2019, both in the period without lag and in the following months.