Future water security based on climate and water demand evolution

Abstract

Changes in climate might increase uncertainties in water resources management, in addition to challenges from an increasing water demand as development occurs. We evaluate the future of water security, under climate change and water demand scenarios. Scarcity and vulnerability indicators were used by approaching the environmental, hydrological and socioeconomical dimensions of water security. A socioeconomically relevant basin was chosen to perform our proposal, well known for several water management issues along the Eastern Brazil, São Francisco River Basin. Our findings expose the fragility of water-intensive activities during dry seasons (June to August) along the next decades. Despite the predictions of increase in water availability in the basin under climate change scenarios, the water demand predictions may cause critical periods of water insecurity. It provides valuable information to support the water permits system in a long-term perspective, adapting strategies to cope with potential future water insecurity in a monthly basis, such as strengthening the charge of water resources use and classification of water bodies.