Modelo preditivo de incidência de diarreia

Abstract

The major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries, especially among children under 5 years old is diarrheal disease. The relationship between sanitation and health is confirmed by many papers demonstrating the benefits of sanitation to improve the health conditions of the population. Socioeconomic variables can also interfere in the prevalence of this disease. The main objective of this thesis was to generate vulnerability maps to diarrhea from data provided by the Municipal Health Department of Campo Grande, from 2004 to 2013. The first step was sought the most consistent way of spatializing the original data, and it was selected the grouping by urban regions. The second step was to determine, among the independent variables (sanitation, water supply, waste, social exclusion, poverty and literacy), which were related to the prevalence of diarrhea, and it was demonstrated that sanitation was the variable with the highest correlation (0.833). At least, it was used multiple linear regressions, that showed that sanitation index and literacy rate are the variables that best explain the prevalence of diarrhea. Using map algebra, we obtained the graduated choropleth map, indicating the priority areas for public policies to prevent diarrhea.