Efeito de variáveis macroeconômicas e indicadores de desempenho na estrutura de capital e valor de empresa: estudo de caso para os setores cíclicos e não cíclicos no Brasil

Abstract

Emerging economies are experiencing a situation of deceleration, aggravated mainly by the Covid-19 global crisis. Thus, an economy from a perspective of uncertainty and mistrust, also caused by high government spending, increased interest rates and inflation, for example, can generate a reality where Brazilian companies have difficulties to survive and develop. The Brazilian economy has been a somewhat unstable environment, in addition to having had a great devaluation of the domestic currency against the dollar (Exchange Rate). To verify the effects of such an environment at the business level, the Capital Structure will be analyzed, which reflects the entities' financing decisions and has a direct effect on the value of companies, which will also be analyzed. In view of this, the proposed study aims to determine the importance of macroeconomic variables, such as: GDP, Ibovespa, Interest Rate (Selic), Exchange Rate; social/economic performance indicators: Indicators of Economic Freedom and Monetary Freedom, and as a means of carrying out a more reliable analysis, the variable “Company Size”, and its effects on the Capital Structure and Market Value of companies. Measure the effect of indicators that characterize social and economic performance on the Capital Structure and Market Value of Brazilian companies listed on B3. The object of study are publicly traded companies in Brazil, in the cyclical and non-cyclical consumer sector, given their relevance to the national economy. The time frame was from 2010 to 2020, a convenient time frame, considering the Brazilian adoption of international accounting standards –IFRS, in 2010. Data were collected from the Economática database, in addition to the Central Bank website. The econometric panel data model was used, with a Generalized Square Methods (GLS) regression in order to capture the effect of the variables on the Capital Structure and Market Value of companies. The results of the macroeconomic variables, GDP, TJ and TC showed mostly expected relationship, having a significant relationship of 1% with EC and VM, and only the IBOV was not significant with EC, however, it presented a significant expected relationship with the VM. The LE and LM indicators showed an expected and significant relationship at 1% with MV. Finally, the Company Size variable also presented the expected relationship in the study in relation to all the proposed dependent variables. The results presented were mostly in line with theory and previous studies, and it is possible to infer that macroeconomic variables, company-specific factors and indicators of Economic Freedom are crucial to measure the Capital Structure and Market Value of companies, as well as, to explain the reality of the analyzed country.