Expectativa e Realidade: uma análise comparativa dos efeitos da Operação Carne Fraca sobre o segmento de carnes a partir dos Indicadores Contábeis

Abstract

This study purpose was to analyze the possible effects on accounting indicators evolution from companies of the meat and derivatives segment due to the outbreak of Carne Fraca Operation, drawing upon the contagion effect theory. To this end, we adopted the FFORMA time series forecasting model to estimate the expected data in a hypothetical scenario without the Carne Fraca Operation and compared them with the data observed with the operation. The results showed greater efficiency of the FFORMA model in predicting companies' data before the Carne Fraca Operation outbreak, indicating a possible operation influence on the observed data, corroborating the graphical analysis. Moreover, the results suggest the contagion effect in the Minerva company's profitability and Marfrig company's liquidity indicators. This study has contributed to the financial accounting literature by proposing a time series forecasting methodology that has been little explored in the accounting data analysis. The main temporal series forecasting competition, M Competition, highlighted this methodology in 2020, and its use constitutes innovation and methodological contribution.