VANTAGEM COMPARATIVA REVELADA E O ACORDO MERCOSUL–UNIÃO EUROPEIA: IMPACTOS SOBRE A COMPETITIVIDADE EXPORTADORA DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL

Abstract

We analyze sectors of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) export agenda that present Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) vis-à-vis the European market and investigates how the Mercosur–European Union Association Agreement, signed in January 2026, may reshape the region's competitiveness. Using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCAI) alongside a Symmetric RCAI, the study examines export flows of soybeans, beef, pulp, corn, and sugar for 2015–2025. Results indicate that MS holds a high RCAI in soybeans (RCAI > 5.0), beef (RCAI ≈ 3.8), and pulp (RCAI ≈ 4.2), reflecting robust structural advantages. However, the analysis reveals these advantages stem substantially from natural resource endowments and productive scale, making them partially vulnerable to European regulatory demands particularly the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and bilateral safeguard mechanisms. A comparison with analogous integration experiences, such as NAFTA and the EU–Chile Agreement, shows that regions with similar agro-export profiles tend to maintain commoditybased insertion in the short to medium term, with only gradual migration toward higher valueadded products. The study concludes that MS holds real and structural competitive advantages that would survive tariff elimination, but that expanding the export basket to processed meats and soy derivatives requires coordinated investment in traceability, environmental certification, and logistics, lest the agreement chiefly benefit raw-grain exports.