Análise estatística das Gerações Distribuídas no Mato Grosso do Sul

Abstract

This Final Undergraduate Project presents a statistical analysis of the evo- lution of Distributed Generation in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, with emphasis on photovoltaic systems classified as Micro and Mini Distributed Generation. The investigation is based on a historical dataset composed of installed capacity, num- ber of connections, and the monthly behavior of access requests between 2018 and 2025, complemented by price series for photovoltaic systems of different scales. The study also includes an assessment of the main regulatory milestones that have sha- ped the sector, such as ANEEL Resolution No. 482/2012, Resolution No. 687/2015, Law No. 14,300/2022, and, in particular, the revision of Article 73 of Resolution No. 1,000/2021 by Resolution No. 1,098/2024, which introduced the requirement for reverse power-flow studies for new applicants. Based on these regulatory chan- ges, shifts were identified in the temporal behavior of Micro and Mini DG growth curves, enabling the construction of mathematical models based on piecewise li- near trends and regulatory dummy variables. The proposed methodology includes the interpretation of cumulative curves, the analysis of inflection points associated with regulatory actions, and the development of projections through 2028 for ins- talled capacity and number of connections, grounded in historical trends and the expected effects of sectoral regulations. The study aims to provide an integrated perspective linking technical aspects of the electrical system, regulatory evolution, and the statistical behavior of Distributed Generation connections in the state.