DETERMINANTES DAS EXPORTAÇÕES BRASILEIRAS DE SOJA: UMA ANÁLISE EM PAINEL (2020–2023)

Abstract

This study investigates the main factors that explain the behavior of Brazilian soybean exports between 2020 and 2023, a period marked by logistical challenges, residual effects of the pandemic and intensified international demand. The research uses secondary data from official sources, structured in an annual panel involving the 10 largest soybean-exporting states in Brazil, selected for their significant participation in foreign trade and for representing the productive diversity of soybean cultivation in the country. These states concentrate practically all production destined for the international market, ensuring greater statistical consistency and practical coherence for the study. Through descriptive analyses, correlations and graphical representations, the study sought to understand how economic and structural variables such as soybean production, exchange rate, international price and rural credit influenced recent export performance. The results reveal strong regional heterogeneity, evidenced both in the scale of exports and in the differences in productive capacity and logistical infrastructure among the states. It was identified that state-level soybean production and rural credit showed greater alignment with export behavior, while the exchange rate remained relatively stable throughout the period and international prices exhibited more pronounced fluctuations. These findings indicate that Brazil’s competitive performance is not explained solely by market factors but also by structural and institutional elements that shape each state’s ability to effectively participate in international trade. By deepening the understanding of the recent dynamics of soybean exports in Brazil, this study provides a solid empirical basis to guide the formulation of strategic public policies, especially in the areas of agricultural financing, logistical planning and environmental sustainability of the sector. Keywords: soybean exports, competitiveness, agribusiness, sustainability, macroeconomic factors.