Mercado da soja no Brasil: comparação entre Centro-Oeste e Sul (2015–2024) quanto ao perfil dos produtores, desempenho produtivo e inserção exportadora

Abstract

This study aims to compare the two regions regarding producer profiles and their structural constraints; productive performance in area, production, and yield; and the export insertion of the soybean complex, discussing how structural and contextual differences (technology, climate, logistics, and prices) translate into distinct trajectories between 2015 and 2024. The research, of a bibliographic and documentary nature, uses data from IBGE, Conab, CEPEA, and ComexStat to understand the structural and productive differences between the two regions. The results indicate that the Central-West region has consolidated itself as the main national center for soybean production and export, supported by large, highly mechanized properties, a high level of technology, and strong integration with the international market, especially with China. The region showed a 47.6% growth in planted area and almost a 93% increase in production over the decade, reflecting agricultural modernization and territorial expansion. On the other hand, the South maintains productive relevance, especially Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, based on small and medium-sized properties and agricultural cooperatives. However, it faces greater vulnerability to climatic variations, which generates fluctuations in productivity and limits the expansion of the cultivable area. Despite this, it presents high rates of productive efficiency and an important contribution to domestic supply and exports. In exports, the Central-West and South account for more than 80% of the national volume, both with a strong dependence on the Asian market. The analysis shows that the two regions, although distinct in structure and productive dynamics, are complementary in sustaining Brazilian leadership in the world soybean market. It is concluded that differentiated public policies aimed at technological modernization in the South and sustainability in the Central-West are essential to guarantee the balance and competitiveness of the sector.