Percepções e comunicação sobre riscos ambientais na Paisagem Modelo Pantanal: governança e dinâmica da rede social

Abstract

Environmental disasters, such as climate change and natural hazards, demand adaptive governance approaches that integrate communities and institutions. This study explores these governance challenges in the Pantanal Model Landscape, a region increasingly affected by environmental events. Questionnaires were administered to capture the perceptions of local communities and institutions regarding environmental risks, resulting in a priority ranking of risks and the construction of a social network map of involved actors. Using social network analysis (SNA), the network structure was assessed with metrics of centrality, modularity, and assortativity. SNA revealed a fragmented network, with low degree centrality among many peripheral actors and a high dependency on a few central nodes, indicating structural vulnerability. With a modularity of 0.68, internally cohesive subgroups were observed but with limited interaction between them, and a negative assortativity (-0.29), suggesting a hierarchical structure that restricts information flow. Additional textual analyses in IRaMuTeQ, including word clouds and similarity analysis, revealed a misalignment in priorities: while the community focuses on immediate local needs, institutions prioritize larger-scale interventions. This divergence, reflected in the risk ranking, underscores the need for strategies to ensure continuous information flow and aligned risk perceptions across groups. Suggested measures by the actors, such as creating alert systems, strengthening leadership, and improving local infrastructure, are essential for effective governance. It is concluded that aligning network structure with group perceptions can reduce fragmentation, enhance community engagement, and build a more cohesive and resilient social network, better equipped to address environmental risks in the region. Keywords: environmental governance, social network analysis, environmental risks, community resilience.