ESTUDO DE VIABILIDADE ECONÔMICA DA IMPLANTAÇÃO DE UMA FÁBRICA DE RECICLAGEM DE POLIPROPILENO UTILIZANDO MODELAGEM E SIMULAÇÃO PARA DIFERENTES CENÁRIOS DE DEMANDA

Abstract

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic viability of implementing a polypropylene mechanical recycling industry in the city of Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul, considering different levels of demand. The study had a quantitative and applied approach, based on real budgets and literature review, combining financial calculations and computational modeling. Initially, CAPEX calculations were performed, including the construction of the industrial warehouse, acquisition of machinery, water reuse system and working capital. The simulation allowed not only to observe the production capacity in each scenario, but also to identify the degree of utilization of equipment and labor, which enabled the detailed construction of monthly operating costs (OPEX). Allowing the assembly and analysis of the company's annual cash flows, which were adjusted in relation to a historical average rate of the IPCA, bringing more solidity to the projections. For investment analysis, investment analysis methods, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and discounted payback, were used to determine the economic viability for each simulated demand level, considering a minimum attractiveness rate (MAR) of 14.65%. The results demonstrated that the implementation of the factory is viable, because in the most pessimistic scenario analyzed in which the system operates below half of its production capacity, the project presented a positive NPV, an IRR higher than the MAR and a discounted payback lower than the analysis horizon. Therefore, it is concluded that the implementation of the factory is viable, even in low demand scenarios, becoming a sustainable alternative in the face of the increasing generation of plastic waste. The study highlights the importance of using discrete event simulation in the ARENA software as an essential tool for industrial feasibility analysis, contributing to the proper sizing of resources and data-driven decision-making based on realistic scenarios.