Long-term population dynamics of jaguars (Panthera onca) and the importance of refuge during extreme fire events

Abstract

Understanding the impact of extreme environmental events on apex predators is critical for conservation planning in a changing world. This study examines the long-term population dynamics of jaguars (Panthera onca) in the northern Pantanal, Brazil, with a focus on the ecological role of riverine forest as refuge. Over 11 years, we conducted systematic mark-recapture surveys, recording 4,161 jaguar sightings and analyzing population parameters including survival, recruitment and population growth on all demographic groups (sex and age). Our findings reveal that riverine forest mitigates the demographic impact of wildfire by proving refuge habitat for displaced individuals and supporting local populations during disturbances. While survival rates declined (0.92 – 0.79) from before to during (0.81 – 0.60) and further after the fires (0.79 – 0.5), recruitment surged (0.2 to 0.61) as individuals sought refuge and then dropped post-fire (0.61 to 0.25). Notably cub recruitment increased post-fire, underscoring the importance of habitat quality in reproductive success. These dynamics highlight the dual role of refuges in buffering immediate impacts and facilitating long-term population recovery. Our study is the first of its kind to dive deep into jaguar population demographics covering both males and females and adults and cubs. This research underscores the necessity of preserving riverine systems as ecological refuges and enforcing conservation policies to mitigate the impacts of both climate and human induced disturbances.