Os instrumentos de políticas econômicas e o efeito no valor de mercado das empresas dos diversos setores da economia brasileira sob advento da covid-19

Abstract

In March 2020, COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, in addition to the chaos brought to public health worldwide, this health crisis triggered severe economic disruptions in most of the global economies. Given this scenario, the present research analyzed, through the lens of Business Cycle Theory, the effects of macroeconomic policies—monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate—adopted by the government on different sectors of the Brazilian economy from January 2013 to May 2023, with special attention to the differentiated impacts of these policies during the pandemic. To this end, the market value (Market Cap) of publicly traded companies listed on B3 (Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão) was used as a proxy for the economy's income. These companies were categorized into 10 (ten) economic sectors according to B3's sector classification. Aiming to capture the sectoral sensitivity to the economic policies studied and in light of the heteroscedasticity and serial correlation found in the collected data, a panel data econometric model was employed. To estimate the effects, the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) methodology was applied, structuring three distinct models: (1) January 2013 to February 2020 (pre-pandemic period); (2) March 2020 to May 2023 (pandemic period); and (3) the complete period, covering the entire analysis interval. In view of this, the research findings highlighted the relevance of exchange rate policy in asset pricing in the Brazilian stock market, as well as demonstrated that fiscal policy played a significant stabilizing role during the health crisis. On the other hand, the results showed that monetary policy had more limited effects, impacting only two sectors, with neither showing sensitivity to the Selic rate during the pandemic period. Finally, it was observed that the pandemic represented a significant external shock, altering the expected effects of macroeconomic variables. This fact underscored the need for differentiated strategies for each phase of the economic cycle and reinforced the importance of a thorough understanding of the nuances inherent to an emerging economy, such as political-institutional crises and more frequent economic recessions. It is understood that these factors, characteristic of developing economies, may have influenced the magnitude of the impacts of each economic policy on the analyzed sectors.