Modelagem de cenários futuros de estoque e sequestro de carbono gerados por serviços ecossistêmicos nos biomas Cerrado, Mata Atlântica e Pantanal de Mato Grosso do Sul

Abstract

Climate change and increased anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover have generated great environmental concern. Given the history of changes in land use and land cover, it is essential to assess local ecosystems' current and future capacity to capture and store carbon. The premise is that land use and coverage changes in the State have influenced carbon stock and sequestration. Adopting sustainable management practices may increase the capacity to mitigate carbon emissions, aligning with the sustainability and environmental conservation goals of the State of Mato Grosso do Sul. The general objective of the study is to assess carbon stock and sequestration in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul in the years 1985, 2007, 2015, and 2020, using the CA-Markov and InVEST models to simulate future scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050, to provide subsidies for the formulation of public policies aimed at mitigating carbon emissions and meeting the State's carbon neutrality goal. The methodological procedures were based on the CA-Markov models in modeling current trend scenarios and forest development scenarios from explanatory variables and InVEST for modeling ecosystem services of carbon stock and sequestration, as well as for their valuation. The results demonstrated that the changes caused in the carbon dynamics by the transitions of land use and cover, driven by the expansion of agriculture and forestry, have significantly influenced the carbon stock and sequestration in the State, corroborated by the data that indicates a significant reduction in the carbon stock in the current trend scenario. In the period between 1985 and 2007, for the Cerrado of Mato Grosso do Sul, there was a significant difference in carbon sequestration with the decrease in carbon stored by the savanna/forest formation class parallel to the increase in stock by pasture areas, which resulted in a net carbon loss of -76.49 Tg for the class, presenting a substantial loss of economic value of US$ -2,209.90 million in the Cerrado, with the possibility of recovery in the CDFs, with positive values of US$ 261.96 million in 2030 and US$ 503.42 million for 2050. For the Atlantic Forest area of the State, there was a dynamic of land use transition, where pasture presents a gradual decrease in carbon stock. At the same time, agriculture has its growth reaching both future scenarios, however presenting sequestration in negative values in all periods, generating a loss of US$ -339.46 million predicted between 2030 and 2050 in the CTA. Savannah/forest formation and alluvial vegetation play an important role in carbon storage and sequestration throughout the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul study period. In the CDF, the valuation of carbon sequestration could reach US$ 927.72 million, indicating that adopting sustainable forest management practices could reverse degradation and restore the Pantanal's capacity to sequester carbon, generating considerable economic benefits. It is concluded that the expansion of these economic activities, without proper sustainable management, resulted in a decrease in the biomes' capacity to act as carbon sinks, with negative consequences reflected both in carbon losses and in the deterioration of the economic value associated with this sequestration. The work reinforces the need to implement adaptive conservation and management policies that amplify environmental and economic benefits, ensuring the sustainability and resilience of the biomes of Mato Grosso do Sul in the long term.