O IMPACTO DO PROGRAMA MINHA CASA MINHA VIDA NO DÉFICIT HABITACIONAL DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL: UMA ANÁLISE ECONOMÉTRICA DE 2005 A 2015

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the impact of the creation and implementation of the Minha Casa Minha Vida (MCMV) Program on the housing deficit in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), from 2005 to 2015. Considering housing access as one of the main points for promoting social well-being and socioeconomic development, this research seeks to understand the extent to which the execution of the MCMV contributed to reducing the housing shortage observed in the state. The study uses secondary data from the João Pinheiro Foundation, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the Secretariat for the Environment, Development, Science, Technology, and Innovation of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the Ministry of Cities. To measure the program's impact, an econometric model estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was applied, adjusted for non-stationary time series using first differences. The final specification models the variation of the housing deficit rate as a function of the variation of subsidized housing units by the MCMV in MS, the GDP per capita growth in MS, and the population growth in MS, with inference based on robust standard errors (HAC). The results indicated that the MCMV's impact on the housing deficit in MS is dependent on the program modality: the subsidized housing units variable showed the expected negative coefficient and was highly statistically significant. GDP per capita growth also proved to be a statistically significant reduction factor. In contrast, the population growth variable and the variation of the program's financed units showed no statistical significance. The study concludes that the reduction in the housing deficit variation in MS during the period was explained by two main factors: the impact of the social (subsidy) component of the MCMV and the growth of economic activity.