GESTÃO DE RISCOS ESTRATÉGICOS NO GOVERNO DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL

Abstract

Implementing risk management in the public sector involves unique challenges, such as the need for a cultural shift so that risk is seen as something to be managed and not just feared, in addition to issues related to resource limitations and the diversity of managerial maturity among civil servants. In the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, in addition to Integrated Risk Management in executive bodies, coordinated by the State Comptroller General's Office, a specific process for managing strategic government risks was initiated in 2023. This process aims to identify and manage risks that could compromise the objectives defined in the Strategic Map of the state's 2024-2027 Multi-Year Plan. The approach stands out for the need for interorganizational coordination, a potentially innovative practice that addresses gaps highlighted in the literature, especially regarding risk management involving multiple agencies. The research is divided into two main parts. The first part, of an exploratory nature, describes the process of implementing strategic risk management, with an analysis of the methods and adaptations made by the state government. Among the main adaptations, the exclusion of the intermediate category in the probability and impact scales and the incorporation of the deliberative role of the Governance Board stand out, which facilitates the transversal treatment of risks. As an improvement, it is recommended to introduce a classification that identifies those responsible for treating risks (internal, external or transversal), in addition to the inclusion of a risk matrix that represents the criticality in real time considering the percentages of the treatments defined in order to facilitate monitoring. The second section, of a descriptive nature, investigates the correlations between strategic risks using the Gephi software. The results indicate that administrative functions exert a strong influence on strategic risks, with budget planning, in particular, occupying a central position due to the high number of interrelationships. This finding suggests that prioritizing actions in this area may be strategic for more effective risk mitigation. Cluster analysis allowed the proposal of work packages for specific areas, which can optimize the treatment of strategic risks. Although these work packages are adapted to the context studied, the analytical methodology used can be applied to other administrations, allowing for the adaptation of actions according to the scenario of each government. Finally, an important limitation of this study is highlighted: the recent implementation of the process does not yet allow for a conclusive assessment of the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Therefore, future research is suggested to examine the long-term impacts of strategic risk management in the state, especially in terms of reducing the criticality of risks and achieving the established strategic objectives.