A crise sanitária causada pelo COVID-19 e a arrecadação do ICMS: uma análise para o estado de Mato Grosso do Sul

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a series of economic challenges around the world, deeply affecting several sectors and countries, including Brazil. This study analyzed the variations caused by the COVID-19 health crisis in the collection of Tax on Operations related to the Circulation of Goods and on Provisions of Interstate and Intermunicipal Transport and Communication Services (ICMS) in Mato Grosso do Sul. During the period of January 2019 to May 2023, the state's economy was marked by fluctuations, reflecting the volatility generated by the pandemic. Analysis of the data revealed that ICMS collection showed notable variations, especially during the months in which containment measures were implemented to contain the spread of the virus. The closure of commercial establishments and restrictions on movement directly impacted consumption patterns, thus affecting tax revenue. Using moving averages to make projections proved to be a useful tool for understanding general trends, but it also highlighted the need for more in-depth analysis of the state economy. Furthermore, the study highlighted the importance of agile and adaptable public policies. The implementation of emergency aid and the easing of tax obligations played a crucial role in mitigating the economic impacts of the pandemic, as did CONFAZ's work with the Finance secretaries. The conclusions of this work aim to help understand economic dynamics during periods of crisis, in addition to providing a solid basis for future research that can explore other forecasting methodologies, such as autoregressive models, in order to deepen the understanding of the complexities involved in the post-pandemic scenario.